Tools to Managerial Control to Mitigate the Dynamic Risk, and Effect of Crisis

  • Type:
    Conference Presentation
  • Conference Type:
    AIChE Spring Meeting and Global Congress on Process Safety
  • Presentation Date:
    May 1, 2013
  • Duration:
    30 minutes
  • Skill Level:
  • PDHs:

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In the scenario where limited natural resources result in reductions in industrial growth it is necessary to revise criteria in Risk Management of the business. The BP accident leaves governments, society and the oil industries in discomfort about its risks. The decision makers, compromise of worker, management of maintenance contracts, the decision of the leaders of the operation, and the communication in routine and emergency issues are included in the analyzes of the BP accident and should be discussed in the Project. The uncontrolled impacts of the risks affect organizational and social aspects of sustainability according to the scale of the plant, according to the level of automation, and according to the quality of global relations. Thus, we present the business risk divided into visions: classic risk, hybrid, and the dynamic risk.

In Classic Vision of Risk, it does not been discussed the control of social processes, and organizational difficulties, due to cultural metrics that are not been translated into task results. The simple technology, social relations with greater commitment at work, with more local impacts, and less global impacts, and more harmonious society (communication and stable behavior in individuals and groups) indicate that the risk analysis results fixed values for the probability of an accident.

The social and economic changes indicate paradigms to be worked out: the human type of worker is affected by globalization, the need for urgent actions for environmental and economic sustainability of the business, analyze the risks of the social relations ("modified") and high production with few human controllers, analyze the risk and the complexity of processes, and to analyze the social movements of the self-reflection of human existence.

In the Hybrid View, job security gives way to process safety and systems instrumented safety. This Risk measurement is concentrated on technical and financial measurements trying, without much success, advance to the measure of organizational climate and to the security perception of the team. In the Hybrid View, it was not been discussed about the decision model of the leaders nor the quality of social relations in the routine. The Management to cover deficiencies arising from unknown Risk leverages the wave of information technology, and invades the operation team with obligations to make reports and follow indexes occupying the worker opinions in integrated management systems. These workers were brought from their obligations in the field  leading to the phenomenon of cognitive laziness, individual omission, and team omission. Learning about risk in dynamic format includes the recovery and investigation of signs of routine allowing open the door that relates to culture results in the task.

In Dynamic Risk Vision, the largest sociotechnical knowledge and the better knowledge about socioeconomic environments can avoid failure events. Technique culture and elements of human reliability  predict regions of lower risk for the company using the robust information. These risks are multidisciplinary: social (harmonization with communities), economic (profit), organizational (culture that reflects the practice of the task), occupational and environmental (control and prediction of accidents / incidents), human (harmonization of work teams with the fault coverage in a controlled manner). In the Vision of Dynamic Risk, the efforts for Occupational Safety and process safety are kept, but including elements of human reliability. In this vision, the measurement techniques are balanced with measurements that reflect the quality of social relationships. The Knowledge of operational risk increases the control over financial risks therefore reduces the possibility of surprises as unscheduled downtime in industrial installations.

The process automation allows the quality control of the finished product, allow achieve the needs of production scale, and meets the control parameters of intermediate process. The industrial plants increased in size, the tasks become more complex, with many reprocessing materials, and reprocessed energy, with scarce skills to perform task, and with conflict installed between practice and policy. These aspects weigh in organizational efficiency and in the company image. The windows that offer opportunity for the accident are becoming smaller in systems with multiple redundancies.

In spite of the initial design of the job and the initial task planning were kept, the human error happens. This lack of comfort of human error happening is analyzed in cultural changing and aspects about the human typology and job allocation. Thus, the less effort due to multiple redundancy (automation) brings new latent failures at managerial level and environmental as well as increase the psychological precursors of human error (slips, memory, and rule error). Thus, new trajectories are initiated using new windows to the fault - then the redundancies built into the design of the chemical plant can cause indirect accident.


The new project for business attends dynamic and operational risks when discuss appropriate management profile: intuition and cognition to perform better decision. The Prevention and corrective activities to keep the danger controlled are resultant from dynamic risk analysis including the possibility of human (operator) behavior modification caused by crisis situation.

After the construction of real sceneries including human error caused by natural aspects, political, social and economic aspects is possible to recommend barriers to avoid the incidents, accidents and eventually avoid the top event. The technologies and manager will be adjusted to initiate operations at factories, to keep operation in control, and to manage unexpected risky situation (during and after crisis).

The manager needs information about his team profile including their risk perception. The managers are afraid about the loss of administrative power than they are taking wrong decisions to keep positions. The engineers and operators do not talk clearly about what is happening with the social and technical aspects in the routine, then, managers need neutralize tendencies of become innocent worker as guilty one. CEO and principal managers must be prepared to discuss about human types, social relations, non-deterministic programs, and, research and action strategies.

The managers and supervisors need to be trained how: (1) working with questioning team; (2) pursuit the organizational goals; (3) reduce centralization posture in routine treatment of staff; (4) fix profile management, avoiding employee turnover; (5) consider human factors and managing conflicts; (6) achieve challenges and cooperation in the team; (7) prepare informal leaders to neutralize the disharmony; (8) to delegate activities; and (9) change the profile of leadership when necessary.

A Risk Management Program is built around the routine of the industrial units and considers emergency and contingency situations. The risks of product leakage through the equipment or the risks of an accident can impact on task performance causing: low motivation of staff, uncontrolled process causing change of wastewater standards (legal aspects), uncontrolled business, do not have harmony in relation to syndicate policies, uncontrolled processes, and uncontrolled operations (when compared with designed technology). Then this paper suggests new systematic tools.


(1) Audit of Behavior and of risk perception to analysis of workers in the workplace. Based on registered deviations, on observation, and in the conflicts analysis between policies and practices – BARPA;

(2) Assessment of risky scenery and environment influences with the decision model changing possibility of the managers and workers

Dynamic risk in the Preliminary Risk Analysis including Social and Natural aspects PRA-SH/ PHA-SH;

(3) Assessment of operator decisions inside of the risk operations at the industry segment – Social HAZOP;

(4) Assessment of multidimensional failure: logic, chronology, connectivity, and materialization;

(5) Evaluation of decision model of operator and leader in progressive emotional stress, from deviations until the accident with fatalities – LODA;

(6) Register, Database of deviations and Failure Tree analysis of environmental and occupational events including human factors – EDA-HF;

(7) Failure Mode Effect and Cause Analysis including the human factors of operators and maintenance workers – FMECAH;

(8) Evaluation of High emotional Stress to the Health and to the Behavior – LESHA.CHEMICAL INDUSTRY APPLICATION

An exercise is developed with a sulfuric acid plant with great part of equipments constructed with glass or glass/iron.

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