Academy Offers

Get a 20% discount on eLearning course purchases made through July 31. Use code ACADEMY20 at check out.

AIChE members receive complimentary, unlimited access to live and on-demand AIChE webinars by purchasing them with their newly increased number of credits. See more resources.

Simplified Methods Of Using Probit Analysis In Consequence Modeling

  • Type:
    Conference Presentation
  • Conference Type:
    AIChE Spring Meeting and Global Congress on Process Safety
  • Presentation Date:
    March 31, 2014
  • Duration:
    30 minutes
  • Skill Level:
  • PDHs:

Share This Post:

The probit function provides a link between probability of expected response and the total exposure of a population to a specific event.  In the case of chemical facilities, probit analysis can provide an estimate of the percentage of occupants inside of a structure who may have an adverse response to a specific chemical release.  Based upon available data, probit analysis can be used to estimate duration of exposure required for probability of nuisance-level response, loss of consciousness, or even fatal exposures. 

Dispersion modeling tools readily provide data on probability of response to long-term exposure (over one hour).  However, these tools do not define the maximum time that occupants can shelter before exposure inside of the structure may have severe consequences.  This paper provides methodology for determining this critical exposure duration.

While data on probit values for some chemicals is readily available, there is minimal guidance in the open literature on developing estimates of probit constants for compounds where they do not currently exist, or are not published.  This paper presents a methodology for generating probit constant estimates based on existing toxicological data for situations where published probit constants do not exist.  This paper also provides methodology on using existing MS Excel formulas in measuring probits and, along with data from dispersion modeling tools, how to arrive at probability of specified response to a toxic release.

Once the probability is understood, a recommended inclusion of this data into a Layers of Protection Analysis is provided.

Once the content has been viewed and you have attested to it, you will be able to download and print a certificate for PDH credits. If you have already viewed this content, please click here to login.



Do you already own this?



AIChE Member Credits 0.5
AIChE Members $15.00
AIChE Graduate Student Members Free
AIChE Undergraduate Student Members Free
Non-Members $25.00