A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to IEC 61511 Prior Use

- Type: Conference Presentation
- Conference Type: AIChE Spring Meeting and Global Congress on Process Safety
- Presentation Date: April 24, 2018
- Duration: 30 minutes
- PDHs: 0.50
This paper discusses the application of Bayesian credibility intervals to determining prior use failure rates for field instruments, valves, and logic solvers in SIS service. This approach is compared to traditional frequentist approaches. Guidelines for developing Bayesian a priori distributions are given, including practical examples of a priori distributions based on industry data and a demonstration of the Bayesian updating process. The concept of hierarchical prior distributions is introduced, and a practical model for managing enterprise failure rate data is developed. The advantages (and potential pitfalls) of the Bayesian approach are discussed, including the inherent handling of uncertainty, as well as the potential to significantly reduce the total service hours required for prior use justification.
Pricing
Individuals
AIChE Member Credits | 0.5 |
AIChE Members | $19.00 |
Employees of CCPS Member Companies | Free |
AIChE Graduate Student Members | Free |
AIChE Undergraduate Student Members | Free |
Non-Members | $29.00 |