Global Ethylene Operating Rates - What Is It Really Telling Me?
- Type: Conference Presentation
- Conference Type: AIChE Spring Meeting and Global Congress on Process Safety
- Presentation Date: April 14, 2016
- Duration: 30 minutes
- Skill Level: Intermediate
- PDHs: 0.50
Ethylene operating rates are used to indicate the fundamentals of the ethylene market, namely do I have surplus ethylene production capacity to manage supply during global upsets. Operating rates have been trending higher over the last 6 to 7 years indicating market is getting tighter on ethylene supply. As we review the historical trend, we need to be aware of the key assumptions driving operating rates for the next 3 to 5 years. How much capacity are we adding versus demand growth? Is demand growth real? What is the feed slate and shall we de-rate more with shift to lighter feeds? How do on purpose units, MTO/CTO, fit into the mix? Do plastic recycle trends matter? Does Polymer substitution incentive grow? What about coal chemistry to derivatives skipping ethylene? A change in any one of these assumptions could have dramatic impact on the ability of the system to supply ethylene the market needs.