hydrocarbon feeds, and hence its use in the absence of clean energy policy must compete with direct use of the feedstock fuel itself. Opportunities for competitive pricing include conversion to hydrogen and use in a fuel cell to provide up to two-fold improvement in efficiency vs. combustion of the feedstock fuel, if power demand is not too great. The resulting electric drive train can, in principle, lead to simplification and cost reduction relative to an internal combustion engine. In addition, hydrogen can be derived from natural gas which historically is priced at a 2- to 3-fold discount relative to petroleum feedstock for production of gasoline or diesel [5].
Hydrogen must also compete with direct use of renewable electricity with 2- to 3-times higher efficiency when combined with electrochemical battery storage, vs. electrolysis to form hydrogen for use in a fuel cell [6], especially for regions or markets seeking to address carbon emissions. However, combined renewable wind and solar resource intensity and capacity factor vary by more than 10-fold across the globe, typically 2- to 3-fold [7]. Regions with abundant and low-priced natural gas and geologic capacity for carbon storage can also provide the clean energy source. Hydrogen as a molecular fuel can in principle be used to transport and store (for long duration) clean energy from resource rich to resource poor regions of the earth, to compete with local renewable energy and direct electrification. Vectors such as ammonia, liquid hydrogen or hydrogen carriers are proposed, with “blue ammonia” formed from natural gas with carbon capture and storage currently showing commercial investment. Thus, regions of the world with less prioritization of reducing carbon or air quality emissions (U.S.) provide clean hydrogen as a vector to those regions which do (Europe) [8].
Our approach has been to use consumer surveys, as well as techno-economic and life cycle analysis conducted at UH using Argonne’s GREET model and related (EERE/DOE) tools [9] to evaluate the above scenarios for where hydrogen may be advantaged in mobility. Result show that hydrogen can potentially compete with battery electric vehicles where customers do not have access to or ability to install home chargers, or for fleet service where rapid refueling/recharging time is valued to reduce total cost of ownership (TCO). Emergence of renewable natural gas or future power-to-gas options with CO2 capture provides a further competitor in use of more easily handled fuels, which must be considered in understanding the value proposition of hydrogen. Limited availability of low-cost options for RNG and overall emissions profiles must be considered, for valid comparison.
The above scenarios are considered in an analysis of road transportation options from light- to heavy-duty vehicles as a function of service use cycles, to address what role hydrogen may play for a future world with or without policy or subsidy to address carbon or air quality emissions. This analysis is highly relevant to decision making in the current environment where policy commitments are often globally and regionally inconsistent or uncertain.
References
[1] Hydrogen Council: Global Hydrogen Compass 2025. https://compass.hydrogencouncil.com/
[2] Bill Gates (2025): https://www.gatesnotes.com/three-tough-truths-about-climate
[3] IEA (2024): World Energy Outlook https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024
[4] Shell 2025 Energy Security Scenarios https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/scenarios/the-2025-energy-securi...\
[5] Henry Hub and West Texas Intermediate Spot Price: S. Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4826083-short-term-energy-outlook-septe...
[6] Bossel, Ulf. “Does a Hydrogen Economy Make Sense?” Proceedings of the IEEE. Vol. 94, No. 10, October 2006.
[7] Inderwildi, C. Zhang, X. Wang and M. Kraft, The impact of intelligent cyber-physical systems on the decarbonization of energy, Energy Environ. Sci., 2020, 13, 744–771
[8] J. Smit and J. B. Powell, Role of International Oil Companies in the Net-Zero Emission Energy Transition, Annu. Rev. Chem. Biomol. Eng., 2023, 14, 301–322. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-chembioeng-092220-030446
[9] DOE H2Tools: https://h2tools.org/hyarc-analysis-tools; https://hdsam.es.anl.gov/; https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/program-areas/systems-analysis/h2a-analysis.
