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CEP: Spotlight on Safety - The Importance of Considering the Highly Improbable (a.k.a. Black Swan Events)


Improbable does not mean impossible. As engineers, we tend to consider improbable things that have happened, and discard or minimize the improbable things that (to our knowledge) have not happened. Many times when the question "can this occur?" has been asked during a hazard analysis, the response has been " this is not a credible scenario" - when in reality, it just has not happened...yet.

Author Bios: 

Louisa Nara

Louisa Nara is the Technical Director of the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) for the American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE). Louisa comes to AIChE/CCPS after 15 years with Bayer where she held positions of increasing responsibility including: Manager Process Safety and Crisis Management; Director of HSE, Security and Emergency Response at Bayer’s largest US Manufacturing site; and, Director, Risk Management and Compliance, NAFTA. Prior to joining Bayer, Louisa also gained significant experience in process safety, engineering, and HSE with Diamond Shamrock, PQ...Read more

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