(153b) Quantitative Risk Analysis for Decision Support in Process Plant Operations
AIChE Spring Meeting and Global Congress on Process Safety
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 - 8:30am to 9:00am
The MIRMAP project (Modelling Instantaneous Risk for Major Accident Prevention) is attempting to address this issue in a systematic manner. The starting point has been the types of decisions taken in daily operation, compared to the types of decisions in a design project. Based on this, risk models have been developed which are intended to give up-to-date risk information with limited effort and sufficiently quickly to be available when the decisions are being made. In trafitional QRA, focus in the modelling is on technical systems and layout and how the systems may fail. This is relevant in design, when there is scope for making changes to these aspects. However, in operation, the design is fixed and changes in the risk level are driven primarily by the activities taking place and how they may interfere with the technical systems. The risk analysis should therefore also focus on activities. This is a different approach compared to traditional QRAs.
The paper will describe the background to the project and the principles of the modelling of risk. Some examples will be provided and practical implications and feasibility will be discussed.
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