(7c) Using the Patterns of Invention in the Patent Literature to Predict Disruption

Disruptive innovation generally refers to development of a new technology, product, or service that disrupts or displaces an established technology, product, or service in a way that was not seen by the incumbent industry or company. Recent examples might include cell phones replacing land line phones, microwave energy replacing conventional cooking with gas or electric, and in the chemical industry the evolution of polymer catalysis from thermal to catalytic processes.

Patterns of disruption can be deciphered and turned into a predictive “lines of evolution” through the analysis of the patent literature. There are a limited number of these lines that exist that are continually seen across numerous areas of science, technology, and business. This capability is a key part of the “TRIZ” (Russian algorithm for “Theory of Inventive Problem Solving”) process. This talk will overview this process and review the key lines of evolution and how they can be used to make disruption less of a surprise.