(40c) Trends in Ethylene Plant Feedstocks

If one examines the regional capacity split over the last 30 years a number of clear patterns can be seen: North America and Europe have lost their dominance of ethylene markets; both North American and European capacity stagnate during ?Bad Times?; Asia Pacific has developed to become a key producer and almost grows irrespective of industry profitability; and although the Middle East capacity is lower it has become globally significant in the last decade. Naphtha cracking remains the dominant source of ethylene globally, however gas cracking has been gathering interest. Naphtha crackers took the brunt of the pressure after overbuilding in the late 1970s, with significant closures in the United States. Ethane cracking has come from nowhere to be a significant source of ethylene, principally as a result of capacity developments in the Middle East. The LPG cracker segment (albeit chiefly comprising ethane/propane crackers) has increased steadily since the late 1980s.

This presentation will review the historical, current and forecast feeds for steam crackers with an eye towards the impact that feeds from Natural Gas and Refinery sources will play. In addition, this presentation will also look at alternative feed sources such as coal, methane and bio sources and how the economics of these feeds relative to conventional feed sources will impact the industry. Finally we will review under what crude/natural gas pricing scenarios these technologies will make sense.