(62a) A Model-Based Sustainability Study of Energy Consumption, Environmental Pollution, and Economic Growth in China
The tremendous consumption of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas is one of the major driving-forces for both the rapid economic growth and the deteriorating environment. In particular, the production of cements, steels, glass, electrical power, and cars that support the high GDP growth in China  release waste gases like SO2, CO, NO2, O3 that are essential for the haze formation in China . On the other hand, different fossil fuels produce different amounts of pollutant waste gases. 81% of the electricity in China was produced from the combustion of coal , which stands for the major emissions of NOx, CO2, CO and SO2 . It is thus necessary to provide a rational allocation of different types of fossil fuels that can sustain the economic growth in China but reduce the environmental pollution.
In order to address the aforementioned issues, we developed the following four models on the basis of the economic and environmental data for Beijing during 2001 to 2015: 1) a model to predict the production of SO2, CO, NO2, and O3 against the consumption of coal, natural gas, and gasoline (i.e., the energy-gas model); 2) a model to predict haze pollution days from the concentration of SO2, CO, NO2, and O3 (i.e., the gas-haze model); 3) a model to quantify the production of cements, steels, glass, electrical power, and cars from the consumption of coal, natural gas, and gasoline (i.e., the energy-industry model); and 4) a model to predict GDP from the production of cements, steels, glass, electrical power, and cars (i.e., the industry-GDP model). These four models were then integrated together to predict the haze days and GDP if the allocation of the fossil fuels was not adjusted in the following few years. The results provide meaningful information for energy-allocation policy makers.
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