The Future of Energy in the Region, Nation and World

Monday, October 29, 2018, 11:00am-12:30pm EDT

What will the future sources of energy be? What is the path to truly sustainable energy? How will our energy portfolio evolve in the near- and long-term future? This session consists of three invited plenary talks from thought leaders giving regional, national, and world views of the future of energy. The session will end with a panel discussion.

Session Chairs:

  • J. Karl Johnson, University of Pittsburgh
  • Cliff Kowall, The Lubrizol Corporation (Berkshire Hathaway)

Confirmed Speakers Include:

Additional information will be available soon.

Schedule:

TIME EVENT  
11:00am 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 T.J. Wojnar, ExxonMobil Corporation
11:20am Energy Decarbonisation Scenarios Kamel Ben-Naceur, ADNOC
11:40am Opening Remarks from Third Panelist  
12:00pm Panel DIscussion   

Abstracts

2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

T.J. Wojnar, ExxonMobil Corporation

 The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s global view of energy demand and supply through 2040. It also highlights the dual challenge of providing affordable energy to support prosperity while reducing environmental impacts – including the risks of climate change. We use the Outlook to help inform our long-term business strategies and investment plans.

The Outlook anticipates significant changes through 2040 across the world to boost living standards, reshape the use of energy, broaden access to abundant energy supplies, and accelerate decarbonization of the world’s energy system to address the risks of climate change.
  • Global energy needs will rise about 25 percent over the period to 2040
  • Electricity demand will nearly double in non-OECD countries
  • Worldwide electricity from solar and wind will increase about 400 percent
  • Natural gas will expand its role, led by growth for electricity generation
  • Growth in oil demand will be driven by commercial transportation and chemical needs
  • Efficiency gains and growing use of less-carbon intensive energy sources will contribute to a nearly 45 percent decline in the carbon intensity of global GDP
Energy is fundamental to modern life, and as the world’s population approaches 9 billion people in 2040, we are challenged to improve living standards everywhere. Understanding the factors that drive the world’s energy needs – and likely choices to meet those needs – is the mission of the Outlook. By sharing the Outlook with the public, we hope to broaden that understanding. Energy matters to everyone, and we all play a role in shaping its future.
 

Energy Decarbonisation Scenarios

Kamel Ben-Naceur, ADNOC

With the energy sector being associated with 2/3 of the annual greenhouse gas emissions, decarbonizing the energy is a key step to reduce their level. The National Determined Contributions (NDC’s) announced so far by the participating countries do not meet the objectives of the Paris-climate agreement, as far as reaching a peak in emissions in the near future or decreasing to a level that is compatible with the stated long-term targets.

Using different scenarios for energy demand and supply, options for energy sector decarbonisation are evaluated. Meeting the 2-degree target requires a major transformation in the power sector, efficiency improvements – specially in the buildings and in the industry, and a revolution in transport towards fuel and modal shifts. With a significant increase in renewable energy, system integration and optimization will also be key in reducing the cost of the energy transition. Meeting more ambitious climate goals (“well below 2 degrees”) will push further the technological innovation and implementation requirements throughout the entire energy value chain. A scenario aiming at zero net-emissions by 2060 is presented, along with a comparison to the 2-degree case.

Theodore J. Wojnar, Jr.

T.J. Wojnar is Vice President of Corporate Strategic Planning for Exxon Mobil Corporation (ExxonMobil). In this role, he oversees all of the corporation’s strategic planning activities and the development of its Energy Outlook, ExxonMobil’s assessment of global energy trends.Read more

Kamel Ben Naceur

Kamel Ben Naceur is the Chief Economist at ADNOC, UAE’s National Oil and Gas Company, based in Abu Dhabi. Prior to that tile, he was at the International Energy Agency (I.E.A.) as director for sustainability, technology and outlooks, where he oversaw the energy and environment, energy technology policy, and energy supply and demand outlook divisions.Read more