(344d) Uncertainties in Economic and Environmental Analyses of Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction Process for Fuel Production

Wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising technology for production of renewable transportation fuels that have 70% lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than petroleum fuels. However, most of the existing techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) studies for wet waste HTL based fuel are based on laboratory scale testing data, with significant uncertainties and/or bias due to the potential knowledge gaps. Previously, techno-economic uncertainty quantification (TEUQ) was conducted for the wet waste HTL process for biocrude production using Monte Carlo simulation based on a reduced order model (ROM) and identified feed moisture, HTL reactor model parameters, and capital investment as the main contributors to the economic uncertainties. The analysis was based on the DOE’s Bioenergy Technologies Office 2019 state of technology (SOT) for the HTL biofuels pathway. Building on the 2019 analysis, a similar approach is extended here to include the most recent developments for the HTL and biocrude upgrading process technologies and estimates in life cycle inventory (LCI) and GHG emissions. In this talk, we will present the improved HTL reactor model, TEUQ for the 2021 SOT of the wet waste HTL pathway for biofuel blendstock production, comparing economic uncertainties between the 2019 and 2021 SOTs to show simultaneous reductions in both minimum fuel selling price and uncertainties due to technology improvement, impacts of technology uncertainties on GHG emissions estimates, and key uncertainty contributors to both economic and GHG emissions projections estimates.