PAIC Climate Task Force: Validity of Projections

Temperatures, ice coverage, sea level rise, weather patterns, species, and greenhouse gases

After a long break over the holidays, the AIChE PAIC’s Climate Change Policy Review Project team is ready to move forward with its last two discussion.  The Task Force has held four discussions, described in the following five blog posts:  Help AIChE Craft Its Climate Policy, August 7, 2017; General Approaches, August 9, 2017; Validity of Observed/Measured Data I, September 5, 2017; Validity of Observed/Measured Data II, October 3, 2017; and finally, Attribution of Observed Climate Change, November 6, 2017.

This fifth topic, Validity of Future Projections, combines the fifth and sixth topics initially identified in the first ChEnected post, Help AIChE Craft Its Climate Policy. Following this fifth topic, the sixth and final topic (likewise combining the original seventh and eighth topics) will ask for input regarding Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation and Resilience - Approaches and Implementation, in a single discussion.

With this fifth discussion, the Task Force continues to review the topics pulled directly from the EPA’s 2009 Endangerment and Cause and Contribute Findings, which is the EPA climate change regulatory action PAIC is attempting to review with AIChE’s member input. The Endangerment Finding was proposed on April 14, 2009, published as a final rule on December 15, 2009, and has survived multiple levels of judicial review through the Supreme Court’s 2014 decision, UARG v. EPA. The PAIC’s Climate Change Policy Review Project involves gathering AIChE member input on the specific determinations in the Endangerment Finding which remains the legal basis for United States climate change policy.

This fifth topic, straight from the Endangerment Finding, focuses on the validity of climate change projections relied upon by the EPA’s 2009 Endangerment Findings for all parameters, including the validity of future projections for temperatures, ice coverage, sea level rise, weather patterns, species impacts, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Specifically, the Task Force requests your input supporting or criticizing the projections and methods relied upon by the Endangerment Findings, found at the linked reference material below, consistent with the posting rules for the community. The Task Force welcomes your input regarding the future projections relied upon by the EPA’s Endangerment Findings, especially in light of developments since the publication of the 2009 Endangerment Finding, including the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment 2013-2014 Reports, the United States National Climate Assessment 2014 Report, and the EPA’s 2016 Annual Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, which may shed light on the accuracy of the projections relied upon by EPA’s 2009 Endangerment Findings.

Discussion continues in PAIC-specific community

AIChE’s Public Affairs and Information Committee (PAIC) remains pleased with the functionality of the new PAIC-specific “opt-in” community and will continue to use this form due to the continued level of interest and participation in its climate change discussions. To participate in these discussions, any AIChE member can join the community. Community members must abide by Engage Code of Conduct and some special rules laid out by PAIC. PAIC has determined that, while the special rules seem intimidating, they are actually quite simple to follow and require merely specific focus on the narrow scope of each sequential discussion, as well as reliable authority for citation purposes. Note that because all posts are being moderated by PAIC Climate Task Force Ambassadors, your post may not be visible to the community immediately. We thank you in advance for your contributions.

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See an introduction to the project and the rules for particiaption, found in AIChE’s initial ChEnected Post 

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Topic description

Again, this fifth topic concerns the Validity of Future Projections for all parameters. Originally, the Task Force proposed to separate greenhouse gas concentration from other parameters, but given the participation, combining the discussions here makes sense. Thus, this fifth topic requests your thoughts regarding the validity of future projections for temperatures, ice coverage, sea level rise, weather patterns, species impacts, and greenhouse gas concentrations, supported by links to appropriate peer-reviewed scientific literature.  

Background reading and resources

The first place to go for background information is the current EPA Endangerment Finding webpage here. At this link, you will find future projections discussed at the following links found on the “Resources and Tools” menu bar along the right hand side of the website (click on the

links and search for “future projections”):

Discussion timeline

This discussion will run from April 3 through April 26. Please share your thoughtful reply before the deadline.

Engage discussion posting rules

Also remember to follow the rules for posting, found in the initial welcome blog post. This topic will be open for two weeks. The next discussion will focus on Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation, and Resilience - Approaches and Implementation.

Opt in to the community | See the rules | Join the discussion