(120e) Advancing Computational Modeling and Analysis for Assessing Sustainability of Large Scale Bioenergy Production

The study aims to analyze holistically and dynamically the adoption of bio-inspired energy systems, technologies and emergence of its supply chains using trans-disciplinary, integrative and system perspective approaches. An integrated methodological framework has been developed to aid sustainability assessment of emerging systems.  This integrated and life cycle computational model for sustainability assessment is based upon the science of complex systems, industrial ecology, systems engineering, ecological economics and biophysical economics.

The interrelationships between system components at various spatial scales can be investigated to produce a sustainable systems behavior. In line with Pareto principle and parsimonious modeling, the interplay of critical criteria, variables, metrics and indicators (i.e. hotspots) for sustainability over time is analyzed. This will help us to describe and possibly prescribe sustainable systems when considering alternative system pathways (which are composed of interacting dynamic sub-systems).

By creating a prototype for dynamic system model for sustainability transition, we can explore visions and scenarios for sustainable development such as the transition from a current (unsustainable) path to sustainable pathways. Through foresighting and backcasting techniques, scenarios  can be explored and investigated to create sustainable future. The different scenarios and systems development pathways considered will provide time series results and pattern formations for evolution and development of sustainable systems, which might be useful for prediction. The trends and patterns can facilitate the formulation of strategies and practices of new entrants and incumbents in the pursuit of sustainable entrepreneurship and green industrial transformation.

The integrated framework is currently being applied to engineered systems, particularly bioenergy systems. In the conference, our initial, on-going applications in creating sustainable supply chains for  "drop-in Biofuels" will be presented and discussed.