Model overpredictions of NO2 are primarily related to the models' characterization of conversion of NO to NO2 in the atmosphere. Data to accurately describe NO to NO2 conversion, such as ozone concentrations at the point of release, are often not available, requiring the use of assumptions that affect model accuracy. Current dispersion modeling guidance from EPA requires the use of additional conservative assumptions that cause further overprediction, such as specifying minimum "in-stack ratios" of NO2 to NOx.
We present our experience in modeling NO2 emissions from BASF's Freeport, TX site, including a progression of more refined modeling techniques. We also present the results of NO2 monitoring over a multi-year period, including a comparison of model predicted concentrations with ambient monitoring data.
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