Incorporation of Agent-Based Modeling and Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment to Improve Assessment of Woody-Biomass Based Biofuels

Woody-biomass based biofuels are an important component to a viable renewable energy portfolio. However, it remains unclear if it is possible to produce sufficient feedstocks without introducing negative environmental and socio-economic consequences. Projections of feedstock supply and land-use change impacts are critical to bioenergy development given the large capital expenditures and time horizons associated with biofuel facilities. Our study demonstrates how agent-based modeling (ABM), a form of computer simulation, can be integrated with life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) to make such projections in a way that captures the complex feedback between individual land-use changes and broader socio-economic and environmental concerns. Our ABM is used to project the harvest behavior of thousands of individual forest owners and their resulting woody biomass feedstocks made available to loggers with resulting land-use change impacts then used to inform our life cycle inventory data for our LCSA. To illustrate the merits of our approach, we conducted a case study analysis of a proposed biorefinery facility in Ontonagon, MI. Our results show that, although Ontonagon is a promising biorefinery site, the social availability of woody biomass feedstocks may inhibit energy production while increased harvesting may also negatively impact regional wetlands. Ultimately, our case study demonstrates the applicability of our ABM-LCSA method and its added value to bioenergy planning and the development of sustainable biofuel facilities.