(115c) Planning Optimal River Transport of Petrochemicals Concerning Uncertainties of Water Levels by Two Stage P-Graph

A novel algorithmic method is proposed for synthesizing the optimal plan of transporting petrochemicals while taking into account the uncertainties of different modes of transportation, especially from refineries of the MOL Group to its major consumers in Central Europe. The preferred mode of transportation is barge, but the availability of river transport highly depends on the uncertain water levels of river Danube connecting ten countries as the second longest river of Europe.

The current work reveals a methodology that provides an adequate basis to model supply chains mathematically and formally as well as to synthesize optimal and alternative supply scenarios algorithmically. The proposed methodology is based on the combinatorial foundations of algorithmic process synthesis or more specifically on the P-graph framework and its recent adaptations for stochastic optimization.

The supply chain in the focus of actual examinations involves two refineries, a storage site, and target locations of the consumers. Decisions on reserving barge and rail capacities are supported by optimization algorithm and software taking into consideration probabilities of different water levels limiting the capacity of river transport. The software generates the mathematical model, the optimal transport plan, and alternative suboptimal plans.