(752e) Towards a Novel Energy Price Predictive Framework: The Texas ? & ? Energy Price Index
AIChE Annual Meeting
Friday, November 15, 2019 - 9:16am to 9:35am
The complicated energy landscape of the United States is carefully depicted to determine the products that are directed to the end-use sectors of the U.S. economy [1-5]. The total energy demand of these products, together with their prices, serve as the backbone of the Energy Price Index [6-10]. Since several key components (e.g. prices, demands) of the Energy Price Index have a lag between two and three months, we introduce a rolling horizon based parameter estimation model to approximate the current value of the Energy Price Index. The predictive methodology is tested on 120 months to show the accuracy of the developed framework in the prediction of the current value of the Energy Price Index. Energy price sub-indices for the transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial sectors are also developed. Some of the potential applications of the proposed index in the areas of economics, finance, engineering, law, and policy are demonstrated.
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