(120c) Energy Decarbonisation Scenarios

Authors: 
With the energy sector being associated with 2/3 of the annual greenhouse gas emissions, decarbonizing the energy is a key step to reduce their level. The National Determined Contributions (NDC’s) announced so far by the participating countries do not meet the objectives of the Paris-climate agreement, as far as reaching a peak in emissions in the near future or decreasing to a level that is compatible with the stated long-term targets.

Using different scenarios for energy demand and supply, options for energy sector decarbonisation are evaluated. Meeting the 2-degree target requires a major transformation in the power sector, efficiency improvements – specially in the buildings and in the industry, and a revolution in transport towards fuel and modal shifts. With a significant increase in renewable energy, system integration and optimization will also be key in reducing the cost of the energy transition. Meeting more ambitious climate goals (“well below 2 degrees”) will push further the technological innovation and implementation requirements throughout the entire energy value chain. A scenario aiming at zero net-emissions by 2060 is presented, along with a comparison to the 2-degree case.

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