(778g) A Computer-Aided Scenario Planning of Future Regional and National Energy Systems Based on Feasible Technology Options in Japan

The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources, and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally with the involvement of all related stakeholders in the energy systems. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. A simulation-based approach is strongly needed for such a purpose.

We developed a nation-wide energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options [Kikuchi et al. 2014]. Decentralized power source technologies have been also modeled and analyzed with scenarios installing them in various countries [Shimizu et al. 2015; Kikuchi et al. 2016a]. A case study was conducted with a model for industrial symbiosis in a remote island in Japan, where excess energy and resources from cane sugar mills are effectively utilized in local energy systems [Kikuchi et al., 2016b]. These models were modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for individual technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems. For scenario planning for actual energy systems, such a computer-aided approach should be able to address the issues related with system design and decision by stakeholders. It includes not only technological aspects, but also socio-economic ones such as the acceptability by energy consumers.

In this study, we are tackling with the scenario planning of energy systems in regional and national boundaries of Japan by developing and using computer-aided tools. Based on the latest energy technology roadmaps by the Society of Chemical Engineers, Japan (SCEJ) [Kato et al. 2016], feasible technology options are modeled for simulating micro- and macro energy grids in Japan. As case examples of microgrid simulation, the energy systems in remote islands were examined and scenarios were planned considering locally available resources. The introduction of energy carriers in Japan was also examined on the basis of energy demand/supply statistics. Regarding socio-economic aspects, questionnaire surveys were conducted to the energy consumers in remote islands and metropoles in Japan to scrutinize the consumersâ?? preferences on energy. Based on the case studies, the requirements of a computer-aided approach for scenario planning of energy systems were defined.

The categorization of feasible technologies options listed in the latest energy technology roadmap [Kato et al. 2016] could be considered in the model framework quantifying energy demand/supply. In the regional grid case study, the energy integration in the rural area was examined on the systems centering on two types of power plant, the existing combined heating and power (CHP) in the sugar mill and new CHP for district heating and cooling in the central town area. The utilization of resources available in regional area can be an effective option for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, which is also supported by the socio-economic analyses. Regarding the macro level introduction of energy carriers in Japan, their advantages have a strong connection with the site-specific condition on energy demand/supply, for example, the places where the unused or renewable resources are available have a priority in mitigation of GHG emission by introducing energy carrier-related technologies. Through case studies based on the developed models, it was demonstrated that the contribution of technologies to, e.g., the reduction in GHG emissions, should be carefully examined by quantitative analyses of interdependencies of the technology options for actual decision-making on energy systems. A simulation-based approach can contribute to the achievement of â?? be smartâ? by considering the benefit and risk of future energy-system options.

Acknowledgements:

Part of this study is financially supported by grants from the project JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 16H06126 (Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists A), 15H01750 (Scientific Research A) and the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (1RFâ??1503). Activities of the Presidential Endowed Chair for â??Platinum Societyâ? in the University of Tokyo are supported by the KAITEKI Institute, Inc., Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation, Fujifilm Holdings Corporation, Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd, LIXIL Corporation, and Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd..

References:

Kato, Y., Koyama, M., Fukushima, Y., Nakagaki, T. (Edited), Future Energy Systems Based on Feasible Technologies Beyond 2030, Springer: Tokyo, ISBN13: 9784431559498 (2016)

Kikuchi, Y., Kanematsu,Y., Sato, R., and Nakagaki, T., Distributed cogeneration of power and heat within an energy management strategy for mitigating fossil fuel consumption, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 20(2) 289-303 (2016)

Kikuchi, Y., Kanematsu,Y., Ugo, M., Hamada, Y., and Okubo, T., Industrial symbiosis centered on a regional cogeneration power plant utilizing available local resources: A case study of Tanegashima, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 20(2) 276-288 (2016)

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