(714a) Sustainability Under Uncertainty: A Systems Analysis Perspective

This paper presents a systems analysis perspective for decision making under uncertainty that extends the traditional process design framework to green process design, green energy and industrial ecology leading to sustainability. For green process design this involves starting the decisions as early as chemical and material selection stage on one end, and managing and planning decisions at the other end. However, uncertainties and multiple and conflicting objectives are inherent in such a decision making process. Uncertainties increase further in industrial ecology. The concept of overall sustainability goes beyond industrial ecology and brings in time dependent nature of the ecosystem and multi-disciplinary decision making. Optimal control methods and theories from financial literature can be useful in handling the time dependent uncertainties in this problem. Decision making at various stages starting from green process design, green energy, to industrial ecology, and sustainability is illustrated for the mercury cycling. In order to circumvent the persistent, bioaccumulative effect of mercury, one has to take decisions at various levels of the cycle starting with greener power systems, industrial symbiosis through trading, and controlling the toxic methyl mercury formation in water bodies and accumulation in aquatic biota.