(635d) Integrated Multiscale Modeling of Economic-Environmental Systems for Assessing Biocomplexity of Material Use

Sustainability assessment of industrial products and processes requires joint consideration of economic, environmental, and social aspects that span multiple spatial and temporal scales. Existing methods for technology assessment and policy analysis tend to focus on a single scale. For example, traditional process design focuses mainly at the manufacturing or equipment scale. On the other hand, Economic Input-Output (EIO) and Partial Equilibrium Models focus on a macroeconomic scale.

This work will focus on the need for the integrated multiscale modeling of industrial and economic systems. We are specifically using the economic input-output model for this work. EIO models have been used for various purposes such as exploring the effect of changes in final demand, taxes and other economic changes. EIO model uses information contained in the detailed I/O tables of the economy. It uses a matrix representation of interindustry relations in a nation's (or a region's) economy. The matrix contains data about the monetary transactions between each pair of industrial sectors. Models based on the EIO model have also been developed for systems analysis and life cycle assessment by combining the EIO model with data about emissions and resource use. This work will describe the approach for integrating the coarse scale EIO model with the fine scale engineering process models. An illustrative example of a cogeneration plant generating electricity and steam will demonstrate the utility of our approach in the context of a disruptive scenario of the carbon tax. While the EIO model is used for estimating the price dimension, a more fundamental physical model based on thermodynamic conservation laws is utilized for the cogeneration plant. Different scenarios based on the feedstock and the carbon taxes are analyzed. The results and benefits of the proposed integrated multiscale framework will be compared with existing engineering optimization approaches that ignore price changes. The implications of the proposed approach in guiding informed engineering decision-making will be discussed.