(681k) Optimal Allocation and Dispatch of Renewable Energy Systems Under Saudi Arabia’s 2030 Vision and Climate Change Projections

Optimal allocation and dispatch of renewable energy systems under Saudi
Arabia’s 2030 vision and climate change projections
Authors:
Abdullah Maghfuri^a,b Wang Yu^c , Mba Wright, Mark^a
a-Mechanical Engineering Department, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA.
b-Mechanical Engineering Department, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia.
c-Political Science Department, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the optimal allocation and dispatch of solar, wind, and
fossil-based energy from facilities located in three Saudi Arabia cities based on 2020 and 2030
climate data. We anticipate that climate change might drive changes in solar irradiation and wind
speeds that influence renewable power generation. In principle, increasing temperatures should
favor solar power generation, but changes in wind patterns could also lead to greater wind
generation capacity for some locations.

To conduct this study, we gathered climate data projections for three cities and developed a
mixed integer linear programming model of electricity production using Calliope. The model
decides on the hourly production of electricity from solar, wind, battery storage, and fossil fuel
facilities and their distribution to the three cities based on the projected electricity demand.

Based on the results, solar power systems are the optimal choice for renewable energy
generation. Without a limit on solar generation capacity, solar generation capacities for the year
2020 in Riyadh, Dhahran, and Jeddah were 43,300, 31420, and 4006 kW, respectively. The
systemwide levelized cost was $0.10/kWh, and solar power systems operated about 85% of the
time. Wind power generation is not projected to be installed in this scenario. If solar capacity is
limited to 40%, Dhahran will invest in 9900 kW of wind generation capacity. The levelized cost of
wind generation would be $0.11/kWh with a capacity factor of 10%. These results suggest that
increasing solar irradiance supports the investment in solar P.V. However, if solar generation
capacity is limited by constraints, then wind and some fossil-based or nuclear energy generation
could supplement solar power systems.