AIChE October 2016 Meeting

Terrorism: the Ultimate "Black Swan" or Just a Deslusional Distraction?

Is terrorism the ultimate “Black Swan” or just a delusional distraction? To understand terrorism, one has to recognize a valid definition of what constitutes terrorism. The main effect of terrorism is psychological. It takes only a few terrorist acts to make a population apprehensive, and to stimulate massive and expensive counter-measures. A few instances of contaminated products cause the recall of entire inventories, directly and indirectly resulting in large losses to all affected businesses. But this begets the question: “Is the effect of a terrorist act truly long-lived?” and “To what degree does an act of terrorism fit the definition of a “Black Swan”?” Today leaders have the responsibility to protect their organizations by facilitating preparedness efforts. Using their status as “leaders,” senior management and board members can and must deliver the message that survivability depends on being able to find the opportunity within the crisis.

Many people feel that the world has changed as a result of the events that took place on September 11, 2001; that we need to rethink our concepts of continuity and crisis management. Today we cannot merely think about the plannable or plan for the unthinkable, but we must learn to think about the unplannable. There is a general lack of knowledge when it comes to rare events with serious consequences. This is due to the rarity of the occurrence of such events. Rare events present challenges for Planners, Strategists and CEO’s. This presentation looks at how the Strategist, Planner and CEO can respond to the challenge - to develop strategies that are flexible enough to adapt to unforeseen circumstances while meeting corporate goals and objectives. This requires a rethinking of contingency planning, competitive intelligence activities and cross-functional relationships internally and externally.

This presentation concludes with a discussion of 9 Myths about terrorism and 12 Steps to get from here to there and temper the impact of Black Swan events.

Geary W. Sikich

Principal, Logical Management Systems, Corp.

Geary Sikich is a Principal with Logical Management Systems, Corp., a management consulting and executive education firm with a focus on enterprise risk management, contingency planning, executive education and issues analysis. Geary developed LMSCARVERtm the “Active Analysis” framework, which directly links key value drivers to operating processes and activities. LMSCARVERtm provides a framework that enables a progressive approach to business planning, scenario planning, performance assessment and goal setting. Prior to founding Logical Management Systems, Corp. in 1985 Geary held a number of senior operational management positions in a variety of industry sectors. Geary served in the U.S. Army; responsible for the initial concept design and testing of the U.S. Army's National Training Center and other related activities. Geary holds a M.Ed. in Counseling and Guidance from the University of Texas at El Paso and a B.S. in Criminology from Indiana State University. Geary has developed and taught courses for Norwich University, University of Nevada Reno, George Washington University and University of California Berkley. He is active in Executive Education, where he has developed and delivered courses in enterprise risk management, contingency planning, performance management and analytics. Geary is a frequent speaker on business continuity issues business performance management. He is the author of over 380 published articles and four books: - ""It Can't Happen Here: All Hazards Crisis Management Planning,"" PennWell, 1993 - ""The Emergency Management Planning Handbook,"" McGraw-Hill 1995 - ""The Emergency Management Planning Handbook,"" McGraw-Hill Spanish Edition, 1998 - ""Integrated Business Continuity: Maintaining Resilience in Uncertain Times,"" PennWell, 2003 - “Protecting Your Business in a Pandemic: Plans, Tools, and Advice for Maintaining Business Continuity,” Greenwood Publishing (Praeger Publishing subsidiary) 2008 Geary has developed and validated over 3,500 contingency, continuity and crisis management plans and conducted over 380 seminars and workshops worldwide for over 100 clients in energy, chemical, transportation, government, healthcare, technology, manufacturing, heavy industry, utilities, legal & insurance, banking & finance, security services, institutions and management advisory specialty firms. Geary consults on a regular basis with companies worldwide on business continuity, risk, competitive intelligence, strategy and crisis management issues.