Delphi Method

A polling of experts utilizing the following procedure:

  1. Select a group of experts (usually three or more).
  2. Solicit, in isolation, their independent estimates on the value of a particular parameter and reasons for the choice.
  3. Provide initial results to all experts and all revisions to initial estimates.
  4. Use the average of the final estimates as the best estimate of the parameter. Use the standard deviation of the estimates as a measure of uncertainty.

The procedure is interactive, with feedback between interactions.